Luncheon with the Governor of Banco de Portugal

Luncheon with the Governor of Banco de Portugal, Prof. Álvaro Santos Pereira
April 20, 2026 | Hotel Sheraton Lisboa
Main Sponsors: Accenture, Millennium bcp | Gold Sponsor: EY

You can see the presentation HERE

AmCham Portugal welcomed the Governor of Banco de Portugal, Álvaro Santos Pereira, to a luncheon debate on the outlook for the Portuguese economy in a context of growing geopolitical uncertainty and international economic volatility.

His opening remarks were followed by a fireside chat moderated by Emanuel Agostinho, Managing Director at Accenture, and the session ended with an open debate, allowing for an exchange of views between the Governor and the participants.

Our takeaways:

Rising Uncertainty and Geopolitical Pressures
The Governor began by pointing out that current levels of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk are higher than those recorded in February 2022, when the invasion of Ukraine began. This context has been accompanied by a deterioration in market sentiment and an increase in volatility, particularly visible in commodity markets.

He also cited concrete examples of supply chain disruptions, such as the difficulties in importing helium (a critical resource for the semiconductor industry) and the pressures on energy markets, with rising oil and natural gas prices, as well as low gas storage levels in Europe, close to those recorded in 2022.

Inflation, Energy and Risks for 2026
As regards inflation, the Governor anticipated an increase in 2026, driven by external pressures, after a figure of 2.2% in 2025. The balance of risks has worsened since the end of 2025, being predominantly on the downside for economic activity and on the upside for inflation.

The main risk factors identified include the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, rising global trade tensions, possible difficulties in implementing the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR), as well as the impact of European investment in defense and infrastructure.

Economic Growth and Structural Challenges
With regard to the Portuguese economy, he said that growth should continue, albeit at a moderate pace, with domestic demand continuing to play a central role.

The Governor stressed, however, the need to increase the weight of exports in the national economy, stating that “growing 2% a year is good, but it is not excellent”, and that a country the size of Portugal should have significantly higher export levels.

The current weakness of exports comes against a backdrop of high uncertainty and growing international competition, notably from China.

Resilience and Adjustment of the Portuguese Economy
Despite the challenges, several positive developments in the Portuguese economy were also highlighted, including the improvement in the external surplus – driven by European transfers at historically high levels – and the reduction of public debt.

The Governor also pointed out that the Portuguese economy today has a greater capacity to absorb external shocks, reflecting the adjustment that took place over the last decade: “Portugal learned from the debt crisis”.

He also mentioned the greater resilience of global supply chains and Portugal’s reduced energy dependence, in a context that has been accelerating the energy transition.

Europe: Competitiveness, Reforms and Productivity
At European level, the Governor issued clear warnings about the need to strengthen competitiveness and speed up the implementation of structural reforms. He highlighted Europe’s lag behind the United States and China in areas such as artificial intelligence and productivity, stressing that “Europe is not even close to the heels of the US”.

He also emphasized the importance of moving from analysis to execution: “In Europe we are great at reports and terrible at implementation”.

Economic Policy Priorities
In his closing remarks, the Governor stressed that, in the short term, it will be essential to monitor how inflation evolves and to avoid second-round effects.

In this context, he highlighted the role of central banks in maintaining price stability and inflation expectations, as well as the importance of any government measures being temporary, targeted and prudent.

AmCham Portugal thanks Governor Álvaro Santos Pereira, the sponsors Accenture, Millennium bcp and EY, and all the participants for attending this important luncheon debate.