January 23 | Intercontinental Lisboa – Rua Castilho, 149

Thank you for the collaboration, Political Intelligence!

Our takeaways:

António Martins da Costa:

• “We live in uncertainty, within some certainty,” and the business world adapts to new rules.
• At AmCham, we do not have a political position, but we do have a position on policies.
• The strength of transatlantic relations is evident and solid:
  • Represent 45% of global GDP: $8.7T
  • Generate 16 million jobs on both sides of the Atlantic
  • 60% of U.S. investment has been in Europe, and Europe represents 62% of foreign investment in the U.S.
  • Europe accounts for 60% of U.S. LNG exports
  • Innovation investment difference: U.S. in Europe = $37B | Europe in the U.S. = $54B (this difference is partly due to restrictions in European markets)
• The guiding principles of the new Administration are clear and based on:
  • Balancing the trade deficit – $1T trade deficit
  • Reducing inflation, which is difficult to control in the short/medium term
  • Controlling immigration
  • Ending “woke culture”
  • America First
  • Deregulation
  • Cutting government spending
  • “Managing America like a business”: creating uncertainty among interlocutors, gaining an advantage at the negotiation table by applying game theory, assuming everything is negotiable.
• A greater focus on cheaper and more accessible energy: gas and oil – but there will likely be an adjustment, as many American companies have already invested in renewables.
• We may witness a possible currency war with China.
• Yesterday, a major $500B investment in AI was announced, largely from the private sector – this easily challenges the modest billions the EU has dedicated to this field.

Nuno Morais Sarmento:

• Since 9/11, there has been a form of American isolationism – in different ways, depending on the Administration.
• We must keep an eye on the internal evolution of the Trump cycle, with its contradictions.
• Expect a difficult relationship with Europe. Trump’s “clients” are Americans; European reasoning is not relevant.
• A sense of urgency in decisions, as he does not plan to seek re-election for another term.
• Portugal’s privileged position in the Atlantic: “the Atlantic rectangle” where Portuguese is spoken at three points (Portugal, Angola, Brazil).
• Reinvestment in Lajes Air Base – economic reason: it is the largest communication and energy hub between North America, South America, Africa, and Europe.
• Two key assets of Portugal: language and the sea.
• “In all rivers, there is room for a bridge” – the same applies to relations with the U.S. – “we just need to find where to build and maintain these bridges” because few are interested in building, and many are interested in destroying.

Mónica Dias:

• The first days of the Administration mark a shift in the political landscape and policies.
• Technology: the elections showed the importance of digital, social media, and how it has changed the way politics is done – also making the scope of (dis)information evident.
• Normalization of extremism: “We are witnessing the end of red lines.” How do we build bridges in such a polarized space?
• The way politics is done: a mix of spectacle and advertising, an authoritarian style – contributing to a cult of leadership/total loyalty.
• The trivialization of the January 6th, 2021 attacks.
• “This way of doing politics will have consequences in both the U.S. and Europe.”
• Change in the political order: politics becomes a space for individual interests, where the goal is to enrich and gain advantages for their families.
• Path towards an oligarchy.
• End of an era initiated by Woodrow Wilson – end of internationalism?
• “We will not witness American isolationism.”
• A stronger stance from the U.S. is expected.
• “Donald Trump will be guided largely by his preferences and vanity.”
• An increase in defense spending is impossible for Europe in the short term.
• Trump’s position on China and Taiwan will be interesting.
• NATO: “I think it will become stronger. It will transform.”
• EU: Still politically weak – will it be able to speak with one voice?

About the Event

This is the time to reflect, debate, and prepare for the challenges and opportunities of a new global order. Join us and participate in this essential conversation about the future of transatlantic relations, the impact on Europe, and the opportunities for Portugal.

In the days following Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States, it is important to discuss the future of relations between the United States and Europe. With changing policies and priorities, companies on both sides of the Atlantic are increasingly interested in understanding the impacts of these transformations on their operations, partnerships, and growth strategies.

This event is aimed at the business community interested in understanding the practical implications of this new political phase, as well as anyone who wishes to discuss the evolution of the international landscape, particularly in the European and Portuguese contexts.

Changes in political leadership and strategic priorities in the U.S. could have profound implications, not only in business but also in geostrategy and geoeconomics. How will the business dynamics in key sectors be affected? What opportunities and risks are emerging in this new landscape? What changes could occur in the global balance of power? How will traditional alliances be reconfigured, and what new partnerships may emerge? What role will Europe and Portugal play in this evolving scenario?

We will be joined by renowned speakers, experts in transatlantic relations, geostrategy, and geoeconomics. Their perspectives will provide a deep and multifaceted approach, focusing not only on immediate impacts but also on the long-term implications for global peace, prosperity, and stability.

Speakers:
Antonio Martins da Costa, President of AmCham Portugal
Nuno Morais Sarmento, President of FLAD
Monica Dias, Director of the Institute of Political Studies at the Catholic University of Portugal
Moderation: Manuel Serrano, Senior Consultant at Political Intelligence

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]