AICEP recently presented the study “The Portuguese Economy in a Context of Global Uncertainty – Analysis of Trade Dynamics”, which examines the impact of geopolitical tensions and customs tariffs on the Portuguese economy, with a particular focus on its relationship with the United States. The study highlights the strategic role of the U.S. as the fourth-largest destination for Portuguese exports, reinforcing the importance of the North American market for Portuguese companies.
In a context of international uncertainty, the analysis underlines how the United States remains an essential partner for Portugal, while also identifying risks, opportunities, and potential pathways for key sectors — from automotive to machinery, and including pharmaceuticals. Market diversification and integration into regional value chains emerge as priorities to strengthen Portugal’s presence in international trade.
Key Findings:
Goods Trade
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Robust trade surplus: Portugal maintains a significant positive balance with the U.S. (€2.9 billion in 2024; €1.2 billion Jan–May 2025).
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Coverage ratio: High values (220.3% in 2024; 214.4% Jan–May 2025), indicating that Portugal exports more than twice what it imports from the U.S.
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Asymmetric relationship: The U.S. is a strategic and consolidated export market but a less relevant supplier (import share between 1.8% and 3.2%).
Services Trade
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High surplus: Services balance of €4.3 billion in 2024; €1.7 billion Jan–May 2025.
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Service exports: Very strong annual growth (41.4% between 2020–2024), with a slowdown in 2025 (+0.9% Jan–May).
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Service imports: More moderate growth (15.1% 2020–2024; +3.0% Jan–May 2025).
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
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Portuguese investment in the U.S. (outward FDI): Sharp decline in 2024 (€210.7 million) and Jan–May 2025 (€32.1 million).
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U.S. investment in Portugal (inward FDI): Contraction in 2024 (€284 million), with partial recovery in Jan–May 2025 (€134.7 million).
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Net balance: Negative (U.S. FDI > Portuguese outward FDI), reflecting net inflows of American capital.
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U.S. FDI stock in Portugal: Sustainable growth (€11.3 billion Dec 2024 → €11.4 billion Mar 2025); the U.S. remains the 7th largest investor.
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Indirect investment via third-party jurisdictions: High “Final/Immediate” ratio (~283%), highlighting the use of intermediaries such as Luxembourg or the Netherlands.
Participation and Market Share
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Exports to the U.S.: 4th largest destination; market share slightly declining in 2025 (6.4%).
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Imports from the U.S.: Lower and volatile position (10th to 8th); small market share (~2.2%).
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Economic operators: Growth in the number of Portuguese companies exporting to the U.S. (4,255 in 2024, 19.7% of the total).
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