Luncheon with the Minister of State and Finance
Professor Joaquim Miranda Sarmento

March 4, 2026 | Sheraton Lisboa Hotel

Main Sponsors: Aon, BIG | Gold Sponsor: Boyden

AmCham Portugal hosted the Minister of State and Finance, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, for a luncheon discussion dedicated to financial stability, confidence, and the growth of the Portuguese economy, as well as the role of the State in the economy in an international context marked by significant uncertainty.

Following the Minister’s opening remarks, a fireside chat took place, moderated by Carlos Freire, CEO of Aon and Board Member of AmCham Portugal. The session concluded with an open discussion with participants, fostering an exchange of perspectives between the Minister and the members in attendance.

In his remarks, the Minister began by emphasizing that “we are living through very turbulent times internationally,” pointing to the evolution of several conflicts and geopolitical tensions, from the Middle East to Ukraine, as well as Southeast Asia and the China–Taiwan relationship, as risk factors for the global economy. – Access the presentation HERE.

Despite this challenging context, he highlighted that 2025 exceeded expectations and that Portugal has frequently been presented as a positive example within the European context. Among the key indicators mentioned were GDP growth of 1.9% in 2025, above the euro area average (1.5%), an unemployment rate of 6% (compared to 6.3% in the euro area), and inflation of 2.2%, close to the European average.

Fiscal Consolidation and Market Confidence

One of the central points of the Minister’s intervention was the downward trajectory of Portugal’s public debt. The Minister noted that after reaching a historic peak of around 134% of GDP in 2020, in the context of the pandemic, public debt has been declining consistently. Forecasts indicate that it will fall below 90% of GDP in 2026 and approach 80% in 2028.

This represents a cumulative reduction of around 40 percentage points over five years, in a global context marked by rising public indebtedness. The Minister also highlighted that Portuguese debt spreads relative to German bonds are at their lowest levels since 2008, reflecting strengthened confidence in Portugal’s public finances.

From a fiscal perspective, he noted that in December 2025 the overall balance of the General Government reached €1.3 billion, a significant increase compared to €886 million recorded in the same period of 2024.

Economic Growth and Labor Market

The Minister also emphasized the positive evolution of several macroeconomic indicators. Private consumption and investment have contributed to economic dynamism, with consumption growing above the euro area average. Public consumption has remained contained, while exports have continued to gain weight in the economy, exceeding 40% of GDP.

The labor market has also shown strong momentum, with employment levels reaching historic highs and the unemployment rate close to record lows. Compensation per worker has been growing at close to 6%, contributing to an increase in households’ disposable income. At the same time, the household savings rate has been rising, even in a context of increased consumption.

In the financial sector, the Minister stressed that the Portuguese banking system is now in a stronger position, highlighting improved capital ratios, particularly in the case of Caixa Geral de Depósitos, which strengthens the sector’s capacity to finance the economy.

Structural Challenges of the Portuguese Economy

Despite the positive evolution of macroeconomic indicators, the Minister identified several structural constraints affecting the competitiveness of the Portuguese economy.

Among the main challenges (Tier 1), he highlighted human capital, bureaucracy and context costs, as well as the functioning of the labor market and social support systems. A second level of challenges (Tier 2) includes issues such as tax fairness, strengthening innovation, knowledge and quality, and the evolution of the tax system.

He also underlined the challenge of the productivity gap, as well as factors that may limit long-term investment in Portugal, including economic uncertainty, energy costs, and certain aspects of business and labor legislation.

Government Priorities

Regarding government action for the 2024–2026 period, the Minister highlighted measures aimed at reducing the tax burden on families and businesses.

For households, a cumulative reduction in personal income tax (IRS) of around €2 billion is planned by the end of 2026. For businesses, the Government intends to gradually reduce the corporate income tax rate (IRC), with the goal of achieving a total reduction of four percentage points by the end of the legislative term. This would represent an estimated tax relief of around €1.2 billion. The stated objective is to reach a corporate tax rate of 17% by 2028.

The Minister also stressed the importance of foreign direct investment for economic growth, mentioning several significant projects already announced for Portugal, including industrial, technological and energy investments such as lithium battery factories, projects in the electric automotive sector, data centers, and expansions in areas such as aeronautics and the defense industry.

Outlook for 2026

For 2026, the Government anticipates that Portugal will be able to maintain a positive fiscal balance and economic growth above 2%, positioning the country among the few European economies achieving this combination of results.

During the discussion session, the Minister also expressed interest in the results of the AmCham Portugal Barometer, particularly regarding the expectations of American companies about the evolution of the Portuguese economy and the international environment.

AmCham Portugal thanks Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, the sponsors Aon, BIG, and Boyden, and all participants for attending this important luncheon discussion.