AmCham 75 – Transatlantic Conversations

Geopolitics, Economy, and Finance in the First Half of the 21st Century with Vítor Gaspar

March 17, 2026 | Hotel SANA Malhoa

As part of the celebrations of the 75th anniversary of AmCham Portugal, the first session of the Transatlantic Conversations was held, dedicated to the theme “Geopolitics, Economy, and Finance in the First Half of the 21st Century.”

The event featured a presentation by Vítor Gaspar, whose experience bridging academia, governmental roles, and leadership in international institutions provided a comprehensive perspective on the major economic and geopolitical challenges of today.

Geopolitics and Economy: Ongoing Structural Trends
In his presentation, Vítor Gaspar highlighted the importance of looking beyond the short term, emphasizing that many current transformations correspond to structural trends rather than temporary phenomena. He warned that the debate in Portugal remains excessively focused on domestic issues, in a context where global dynamics are increasingly influential.

The speaker highlighted the rise of geopolitical risk in recent decades, noting that after the peaks observed during the major world wars, a new intensification emerged from the 1990s, particularly after the September 11, 2001 attacks. Today, conflicts such as those in the Middle East continue to have significant impacts on the global economy, especially in terms of energy trade.

Global Rivalries and the Reconfiguration of Economic Power
A central point of the presentation was the analysis of the growing rivalry between the United States and China. Vítor Gaspar emphasized the gradual shift of the world economy’s center to Asia, in a context where Europe has experienced more moderate growth.

Despite this reconfiguration, he stressed that the economic dominance of the United States remains significant, supported by the size of its economy, the depth of its financial markets, and its capacity to invest in innovation. In contrast, China, although growing rapidly, is not yet in a position to challenge the dollar as the dominant currency in the short term.

The role of the euro was also addressed, noting that it has lost some ground, partly due to limitations in European financial integration. Nonetheless, positive perspectives were highlighted in relation to recent efforts to deepen the Capital Markets Union.

International Monetary System and Hegemonic Transitions
The presentation also highlighted the slow and complex nature of transitions between dominant currencies, underlining that changes in this domain involve high costs and occur over extended periods.
On a broader scale, Vítor Gaspar noted that hegemonic transitions in the 21st century are unlikely to follow the relatively peaceful pattern observed in the shift from British to American leadership in the 20th century.

Portugal in the Global Context
Regarding Portugal, structural challenges related to competitiveness and the economic development model were identified. Vítor Gaspar emphasized the need for the country to focus on areas of excellence with international projection, as well as to strengthen education and research as drivers of sustainable growth.
He also highlighted the importance of promoting a more competitive economy, less constrained by the weight of the public sector, creating conditions for greater dynamism in investment and innovation.

The session concluded with a question-and-answer period, followed by a networking moment among participants.

AmCham Portugal thanks Prof. Vítor Gaspar and all participants for their presence at this initiative, part of the celebrations of its 75th anniversary.